A Few Seconds of Panic Review

While killing some time browsing on Amazon.com I came across a review I wrote a couple of years back for Stefan Fatsis' A Few Seconds of Panic.  If you're looking for some good winter reading, especially now that football season is in full swing, I highly recommend it (especially to Broncos/Redskins fans - lots on Mike Shanahan):

"I enjoyed this book. It was a quick read, and as the 2008 NFL season is winding down, it provided an interesting look at a team that year in and year out is in the thick of the playoff race - the Denver Broncos. Fatsis does a great job touching on a number of different subjects including kicker subculture, coaching approaches to game preparation and roster cuts, the NFL as a bureaucracy, and players who go largely unnoticed from city to city, filling in for injured players and making the league minimum's salary on various practice squads. As a football fan, gaining a better understanding of the off-season, training camp, and the preseason from someone almost entirely on the inside was well worth the time on this page-turner. 

The book is a lot about the mechanics and psychology behind kicking, and as an often-overlooked part of football, that's fine. But while Fatsis seemed to assimilate well with Denver's coaching staff, kickers, Quarterbacks, and a handful of other various position players, much of the book focuses on players toward the bottom of the depth chart who don't even make the 53-man roster. His book relied too heavily on a small group of players, leaving me feeling like there were many other personalities and stories that he either left out or did not have access to despite his presence being casually accepted by the majority of the Broncos organization.

This is a story of a 43-year old who becomes a member of a professional team as an experiment, and much credit to Mr. Fatsis for pulling that off in a league that is incredibly controlling of its media exposure. But it is also a story largely about the journeymen of the NFL, as Fatsis tries to uncover why these players, many of whom are injured, neglected by the coaching staff, or unlikely to ever find a steady job playing professional football, still show up to fight for roster spots. I would have liked to see more about the players with more job security (non-kickers) and gotten more of a glimpse into the preparation they go through year after year and what their impressions of the game, league, and team were.

Definitely a great piece of writing and Fatsis' story in this book is just as interesting as that of any of the players."  

Moss Released: Who's Laughing Now?

So when I last commented that the Vikings had gotten Moss I thought that New England would eventually come out the winner in this trade. Little did I know was that Randy would prove me right (for once) so soon. The Vikings got 13 catches in 4 games and gave up a 3rd round pick. Remember, the Pats only had to give up a 4th rounder to get them so they really cleaned house. Moss just made Belichick look even smarter than he already is. It will be interesting to see who picks Moss up off the waiver wire, if anyone.

I wonder how this plays out with the Vikings front office. It looks like Childress has lost the confidence of the team and possibly management. Maybe he'll be following in Randy's footsteps and is the next to go.

Week 5: Under the Radar

Week 5 - Week 7 in the NFL is when you start to see who the real contenders will be and who just got off to a hot start, but fades away aka 2009 Denver Broncos. So many 2-2 teams so who will get over the hump this week...eh, it's fantasy so who cares. Logic out the window and here are the UTR's for this week.

Bye Week teams: Dolphins, Steelers, Seahawks, Patriots.

Cedric Benson RB-playing a weak Bucs Def should get him a lot of carries.

Ryan Torian RB-Who? Starting RB for the Washington Redskins now that Portis is out he'll get plenty of carries.

Thomas Jones/Jamal Charles- They are playing the Colts, which means one thing...running the ball is the only option and best defensive strategy to stopping Peyton.

Kevin Walter, WR- I'm not sure how healthy Andre Johnson is so he might be getting more targets than usual.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB-The bills play a terrible Jags secondary and Fitzy has been surprising since taking over for the cut Edwards. Not a bad option if you had Tom Brady as your starter.

Kevin Boss TE-Did you see what Zach Miller did last week against the Texans? Eli will be looking his way A LOT.

Turducken League Profile of the Week

Could there be better timing to launch a new Turducken weekly series profiling each team starting with the current team on the bottom and working our way up to #1?  Not like being 1-3 at this point means anything, a win in Week 5 and Team Box will be right back in the top 8 with the rest of the league currently at 2-2.  And is it just me, or is there some interesting trade action buzzing?

QB:  Donovan McNabb, Brett Favre

RB: Michael Turner, Cedric Benson, Fred Jackson, Clinton Portis

WR: Randy Moss, Hakeem Nicks, Louis Murphy, Josh Morgan (SF), Joey Galloway (Washington)

TE: Tony Sheffler (Detroit), David Thomas (New Orleans)

D/ST: Buccaneers, Saints

K: Rob Bironas

Tier 1:

Michael Turner, Randy Moss, Cedric Benson

Tier 2:

Clinton Portis, Hakeem Nicks, Donovan McNabb, Brett Favre

Tier 3:

Fred Jackson, Louis Murphy

Comments:  If Clinton Portis weren't out for a few weeks with an injury, Team Box would have a great foursome of backs, especially since Marshawn Lynch was traded to Seattle and Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller seem destined to have a healthy split of carries in Buffalo.  Michael Turner and Cedric Benson have gotten off to relatively slow starts but should start to pick up their production as Atlanta and Cincinati's matchups improve (except for Cinci's remaining games against pittsburgh and baltimore...).

Rob Bironas is a good kicker, Tennessee can move the ball pretty well but doesn't have that go to guy to catch touchdowns in the red zone.  The Saints defense will create points on special teams and with turnovers and play particularly well at home.

Now what everyone is talking about: a trade currently under league review that would send Brett Favre to teh Brklyn Brawlers for Marques Colston.   Colston would fall under the tier 2 player category, as does favre, and each have upside but serious downside.

Favre: Has a lot of weapons and proved last season he's still a great quarterback.  Lingering questions over his age and ability to sustain an entire season of punishment against some of the league's best defenses in the NFC North and AFC/NFC East teams who the Vikings are scheduled to face.  Also how much will the Vikings rely on Adrian Peterson?  Will they let Favre throw 25-30 times per game?  Plus he is retiring after this season.  Or is he....?

Colston:  Off to a slow start this year (8.5, 8.5, 4, and 5 points respectively in the first four games), lots of weapons on the Saints offense could mean reduced targets some games, but once the saints pick it up on offense they can easily put up 500 yards passing and 4-5 touchdowns, which is plenty to go around.  In the first four weeks of 2009, Colston only averaged 12 points per game... it wasn't until weeks 5-7 that he put up 26, 16, and 17).  Could that be the case again this year?

What do you think of the trade considering Team Box and Brklyn Brwlers??

Moss returns to Minnesota

Who is happy right now? Brett Favre?!?

Details of trade:

Vikings send a reported 2011, third round draft pick for Moss.

Interesting trade that I think New England will actually come out the winner of this in the long term. Right now it doesn't make a whole lot of sense on the surface why the Pats would deal him. Moss is still a viable player, but for how much longer? He can still stretch a defense and paired with Sidney Rice-when he returns from hip surgery- and Percy Harvin along with Schiancoe will give Favre plenty of passing options, but this looks like a last attempt to get the Vikes to the Super Bowl this year and will stunt their long term growth.

Good thing for Fantasy owners is that Moss and Favre's stock just went up.

Week 4: Under the Radar

The first week Fantasy teams are dipping into their benches with the bye week, unless your like me that has umm...well, underperformed starters?!? Yes, that's it. Wake up boys! Here are some guys that have favorable match ups this week or I just have a good feeling about. Logic out the window and here we go.

BYE Week Teams: Cowboys, Chiefs, Vikings, and Bucs.

Maurice Jones Drew: Yes, he was off to board by pick #5 in 99.99% of all fantasy drafts, but thus far has been a DUD and off the radar, but alas he gets to play a suspect run defense of the Colts and if the Jags have a pea-sized collective brain between the collective coaches then they'll know they need to play like the Texans did in week 1 and RUN THE BALL again and again and again. MJD gets 30 touches and one of those will actually be for a TD.

Louis Murphy: The Oakland receiver has established himself as a legit starter. I mean it. His stats are better than Larry Fitzgerald, Randy Moss, Calvin Johnson, and Hines Ward to name a few. Get him off the wire or get him in your lineup.

Zach Miller: Why? Texans can't cover the TE.

LaDanian Tomlinson: Playing Buffalo and although they are better now that Trent Edwards has been benched, it's still Buffalo. He's nicely established himself as Rex Ryan's go to man. He plays with a chip on his shoulder and is making each game an FU by way of Thank You to the Chargers. No wonder Ryan loves a reject.

Cedric Benson: He's been playing okay, but has started to pick up steam. Look for him to go full speed ahead again Cleveland today.

Johnny Knox: Playing the Giants on Sunday night he'll have some good match-ups. The only question will be which Jay Cutler shows up.

Sam Bradford: He's at home and coming off his first NFL victory. He'll make that his 2nd win today against Seattle. He's not an everyday starter, but if he's on the wire and you need a back up then he's worth a look.

Week 4 Turducken Update w/Power Rankings

1) Team Murkin Man - 3-0.  Legitimate like the Steelers or overrated like the Chicago Bears?  You be the judge, but taking Matt Schaub with the #1 pick isn't looking quite as crazy after his 500 yard game vs. the redskins in week 2.  Arian Foster is looking like a much better running back than the majority of players who went a few rounds ahead of him.  And when Ray Rice is healthy and picks it up....  

2) Manhattan Maddenisms - Like the Oakland Raiders, the Maddenisms aren't concerned with what its players do off the field, and Michael Vick has picked up right where he left off with the Atlanta Falcons pre-busted for organizing dog fighting.  Adrian Peterson, Antonio Gates, and LeSean McCoy have been point scoring machines, and watch out for Hines Ward and Ahmad Bradshaw once the New York Giants and Steelers offenses get rolling.

3) GSO Bayern Ballboys - Matt Forte is back!  And everyone who drafted him in 2009 in the first round are hitting their heads against the wall.  Roddy White, Miles Austin, and Aaron Rodgers are consistent sources of big points.  And TE Jermichael Finley is having a breakout season.  As the season wears on an injury to a key player could be detrimental, but until then GSO is going to rack up points and definitely compete for a top playoff seed and the highest point total prize.

4) GaGa's Penis - Can Peyton Hillis step in and be a #1 RB, especially in a division where the lowly browns have to go up against Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Cinci's run defenses six times?  Brandon Lloyd will be a good pick up for GGP, but let's be honest: Peyton Manning, Chris Johnson, and Wes Welker will carry this team regardless of who else starts, and who wouldn't rely on those three?

5) Chelsea Pirates -  Once Santonio Holmes is back from Suspension and has Big Ben throwing him touchdowns left and right, the Pirates core of three #1 RBs (Gore, Mendenhall, and Jahvid Best) leaves running back deprived Turducken owners all kinds of jealous - as long as they stay in the Pirates starting lineup when they score 50+ points!   Dallas Clark and Brandon Marshall are also capable of putting up some serious points.

6) Pre Season Champs - If Fox News covered Turducken, the headline would read "Running Back Crisis - Obama's socialism to blame."  While you can blame Obama for a lot of things, I guarantee he has nothing to do with horrible first weeks by PreSeason Champs Shonn Greene and WR Percy Harvin.  With Andre Johnson battling an injury, Drew Brees will have to start putting up monster numbers that he has in the past to keep the Pre Season Champs in the top half of the league while they sort out their Running back situation.  Watch out though, could John Kuhn be this year's version of last year's Willis McGehee?

7) Oaktown Griz - The Griz might not end the season with the highest point total, but putting up consistent numbers is just as dangerous as alternating between scoring low and high every week.  Devastated by the Ryan Grant injury and nagging ailments to Beanie Wells and Knowshon Moreno, picking up Pierre Thomas should reap big rewards for the Griz moving forward - almost as good as if they got DeSean Jackson for Mark Sanchez...

8)  BKLYN Brwlers - Every week, Calvin Johnson and Maurice Jones Drew are projected to score 20+ points.  And every week, "washed up" LaDainian Tomlinson outscores them, sometimes combined.  Shonn Greene is obviously not ready to be the #1 RB in NY so LT is looking for at least one more year of great fantasy numbers.  Megatron and MJD will come around, and keep an eye on some of the younger players on this team to start putting up big numbers later in the season (Ryan Matthews, Dez Bryant, and TE Jermaine Gresham).

9) Gowanus Grwlers - Injuries are killing Gowanus, and Ronnie Brown/Ricky Williams have had less than ideal matchups in the early weeks against top run defenses Minnesota and the NYJ.  Tom Brady will give Gowanus consistent 20 point games, but can the rest of the team pick up their point totals (I'm looking at you, Larry Fitzgerald)?

10) Team Box -  Arguably the team with the most consistent point scorers, McNabb, Michael Turner, Cedric Benson and Randy moss will sooner or later put up big games.  In the meantime, Team Box is 1-2 with a starting QB, which is a much better start than last season.  If Brett Favre and the Vikings get in sync during this week's bye it could be just the source of points Box needs to be among the best of the league.  

11) Kathleen Turner Overdrive - KTO is poised to move up and fast once Jamaal Charles is past his bye week and Brandon Jacobs' situation gets worked out.  The Giants need to play him or trade him, end of story.  In the meantime, look for Mike Sims Walker to start making a bigger impact for the Overdrive once Santonio Holmes returns to the Jets from his suspension and Braylon Edwards gets another DUI - impressive considering they've all been in Manhattan where not driving a car is a pretty easy option.    

12)  DC Dementors - With the Giants offense off to an abysmal start, the Dementors have yet to start generating a lot of points from their first two draft picks, QB Eli Manning and WR Steve Smith.   DeAngelo Williams' slow start doesn't help either - the Green Bay Packers defense has scored more points than any DC running back... it's a long season but they'll have to start producing if the Dementors want to contend for a playoff spot.  


GOTW: GGP (2-1) vs. Manhattan Maddenisms (2-1):  Each team is projected to score over 120 points and the winner will keep the pressure on Team Murkin Man, who is only projected 10 points above their sunday matchup the gowanus growlers.

Week Two: Under the Radar

Ok, so after some stellar performance in week 1 (CJ2K, Arian Foster) and then some disappointments here are my picks for some players who will come up big in week 2.

Brandon Jacobs and everyone else for GB. They have Buffalo at home. 'nuff said.

Greg Camarillo: Shiancoe might be Favre's favorite target, but look for GC to emerge as his favorite WR.

Malcolm Floyd: I know Naanee had a monster game, but Floyd was River's favorite target. Look for him to put up solid numbers against the Jags.

Arian Foster: I guess after last week I can't really say he's under the radar, but it's like playing knockout-gotta prove it with one more game before he's no longer UTR.

Michael Vick: Can this really be? I see Vick running wild and doing some damage to Detroit.

Ahmad Bradshaw: Shakes off the cobwebs from a slow start in week 1 and is salivating to play that Indy D on Sunday night.

Dez Bryant: I think in his home debut he comes up big in big D.

Sam Bradford: I only saw the highlights from his debut, but playing Oakland could make him feel like he's back in college. His biggest fan might be the man behind w/Stephen Jackson finally thinking he might not have to face 8 man fronts every down.

Fantasy Football 101

So a lot of my non-fantasy football friends ask me what fantasy football is and what is the big deal. Well fantasy football is now a billion dollar enterprise for what used to be a bunch of armchair quarterbacks. We don't care about if the Patriots win or lose, we just want to know how many touchdowns Tom Brady threw, how many receptions Randy Moss got and how many points the opponent was held to for the game. We are addicted to stats and look for any advantage to give us a statistical edge.

For the die-hard fantasy owners this is something you do year round-not just in September when the NFL season starts or even in August with mock drafts, but this can be a 365 day obsession. You follow the offseason workouts, college combines, the draft, trades, waivers, GMs, coaches, strength of schedule; everything and anything that will give you an edge for the fantasy draft and when the season starts.

The Basics:
Fantasy football is a competitive game where owners earn points by using real NFL players statistics each game. The idea is to have the team that accumulates the most wins in your league over the course of the 17-week NFL regular season. So how do you get a win? Well each player on your team will earn fantasy points based upon their statistical performance in their real game that week. Every week you will compete head to head with another owner and see who can get the most points.

Ok, so hopefully you're following so far. Next question: How do you earn fantasy points? There can be slight variations, but I will give the most basic scoring format. Quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends can earn points for yardage and touchdowns. Kickers earn points for extra points and field goals. Defenses earn points if they get a defensive touchdown, how many points they hold their opponent too, and turnovers.

Likewise, players can lose points if they turn the ball over (interceptions or fumbles), a kicker misses a field goal/extra point or if a defense gives up a lot of points to their opponent.

Quarterbacks generally earn 1 fantasy point for every 25 passing yards, 4 points for every touchdown they've thrown, and 6 points if they ran for a touchdown themselves. So if your fantasy quarterback was Peyton Manning and for Week 1 his stat line was 250 passing yards, 2 passing touchdowns and 1 interception he would get 10 points for his 250 passing yards, 8 points for passing touchdowns, but lose 2 points for the interception so his net fantasy points that week would be 16 fantasy points.

Running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends earn points mainly 3 ways: 1 point for every 10 yards receiving/rushing, 6 points if they score a touchdown, 1/2 point per reception and can lose points for fumbles. So if you had Randy Moss as your wide receiver and he had 10 receptions for 100 yards and 1 touchdown with no fumbles he would earn 5 points for the 10 receptions, 10 points for the 100 receiving yards, and 6 points for the touchdown he scored for a total 21 fantasy points.

Each of your starters will earn points, you take the grand total and hope it's more than your opponent's starters. You do not get points for players on your bench.

Most leagues have 9 starters, which consist of: 1 Quarterback, 2 Running backs, 2 Wide Receivers, 1 Flex player (allows you to play a RB or WR), 1 Tight End, 1 Kicker, and 1 team Defense. There are variations to this. For example some leagues don't have a Flex option and regulate 2RBs and 3WRs or maybe you draft individual defensive players instead of the team defense, but for the most part you have 9 starters and 7 bench players that comprise your team.

Ok, but how do you get your team? Well first you join a league. You can create your own with your friends or join a public league. Generally they range from 10-16 members (owners) per league. 12 is the most common number of owners. Once you've joined a league the next step will be to participate in a draft. There are different types of drafts, but basically you can either have a computer make all your picks for you or you can enter what's called a "live" draft and make the picks yourself. Most fantasy owners will enter a live draft with their league and each team gets 16 picks. The draft order is chosen at random and everyone makes their picks depending upon that predetermined order.

This is where following football year round can pay off because everyone knows the obvious star fantasy players. I say "star" fantasy players because you can have a quarterback who may be a great NFL quarterback, but an average fantasy quarterback because in the NFL everything is based on wins; in fantasy everything is based statistics. A quarterback who gets 13 wins a season for his team is great, but if he only averages 10 fantasy points a game-well that's not what we like to call a fantasy stud.

So now you're in a league, you've drafted your team, and you compete week in and week out with the other owners mostly for bragging rights, but there are plenty of buy-in leagues anywhere from $10 to $10,000.

I hope this has helped those of you understand fantasy football a little better. Hit me up with questions or comments.

Live Commentary and Under the Radar Starters for Week 1:

Some guys who will be solid if not spectacular this week.

Jabar Gaffney: Denver’s number 1 receiver. Someone’s got to catch the ball and if he picks up where he left off from last season he could be addition off the waiver wire. Add that Jacksonville has a weak passing D only helps the case for him to start.

Brandon Marshall: Playing against Buffalo. Miami wears the Bills down with the run and the Henne hits Marshall for a few short passes that turn into 25+ yard plays.

Ahmad Bradshaw: He’s getting the start over Jacobs and will back it up with a solid performance.

Ryan Mathews: Makes his debut and it will be big.

Cadillac Williams: Finally healthy this year and Browns will be without Shaun Rogers.

Arian Foster: Explosive game with high octane offense and he’ll benefit from it.

Chad Henne: More because he’s playing Buffalo, but will be a solid starter today.

Matthew Stafford: Look for him to put up enough stats for to be a top 10QB this week.

Turducken Week 1 Matchups

Power rankings are in the works for a post-Week 1 release.  In the meantime, some quick thoughts on the first six matchups of the season...

GaGa's Penis vs. DC Dementors: When do you bet against Peyton Manning?  When he's up against the Saints.  Unfortunately, the Dementors don't have any New Orleans players but could make it a much closer game than ESPN projects.  Watch for breakout games from Jerome Harrison and Malcolm Floyd, two great later round picks from DC.   Interestingly enough, GGP will rely on two Saints, Pierre Thomas and Robert Meachem to compliment what will be almost certainly a huge day for Chris Johnson vs. oakland.  Pick: Gaga's Penis

Team Box vs. Chelsea Pirates: The Pirate's backfield of Frank Gore, Rashard Mendenhall, and Jahvid Best may be the best in Turducken.  And with Brandon Marshall, Dwayne Bowe, and Dallas Clark all bound to score a ton of points off receptions, the Pirates only downfall this year may be once again at quarterback.  Team Box, on the other hand, has two future hall of famers in Brett Favre and Donovan McNabb behind center.  Brett Favre gets the call against New Orleans, but a stroke of bad luck for Team Box - their star RBs and WR are all up against some of the league's best defenses.  Pick: Chelsea Pirates

Oaktown Griz vs. Team Murkin Man: The battle of the Bay Area, past vs. present.  This game comes down to how many points Houston can store vs. Indianapolis as TMM puts its faith in #1 draft pick Matt Schaub and RB Arian Foster.  The other big question here is how many points will Ray Rice score against the Jets?  Oaktown might not have as flashy a roster, but if Green Bay scores a lot of points against Philadelphia (by no means a guarantee) they'll have a great shot to pull a big week 1 upset against last year's runner up.  Pick: Team Murkin Man

Manhattan Maddenisms vs. GSO Bayern Ballboys: Two of last year's top scoring teams will face off in what will likely be Week 1's highest scoring matchup.  Maddenisms QB Matt Ryan has a tough task against a hungry Pittsburgh defense, but will likely get a lot of opportunities to drive Atlanta down the field as Dennis Dixon will inevitably go three and out at least a few times.  If Aaron Rodgers finds Jermichael Finley for a couple of touchdowns, either team could score over 150 points and still lose.  Pick: Maddenisms.

PreSeason Champs vs. Kathleen Turner Overdrive (game 1 of this week's Brooklyn Bowl 2010): Drew Brees is going to score a lot of points this week, and it will be up to Philip Rivers to make up the difference despite the absence of WR Vincent Jackson.  Brandon Jacobs, Jonathan Stewart, and Jamaal Charles can all score a lot of points, but will they all contribute the same week?  Pick: PreSeason Champs

GAME OF THE WEEK (GOTW):  The other half of Brooklyn Bowl of 2010,  BKLYN Brwlers vs. Turducken newbie the Gowanus Growlers.   A truly great matchup that's too close to call - even ESPN has a projected final score of 128.5 to 127.   The Growlers seem to have better matchups than the Brwlers at first glance (Jay cutler vs. Detroit, Ronnie Brown/Ricky Williams vs buffalo, and Larry Fitzgerald vs. St. Louis (SOMONE will pick up Derek Anderson prematurely after he passes for 400 yards and 4 TDs this week).  This game will come down to the possible resurgence of Calvin Johnson, the dependability of Donald Driver, and the promise of rookie RB Ryan Matthews.  Pick: Too close to call.  

The winner of the Brooklyn Bowl will be the team from Brooklyn with the best record against the other BK teams.   Contestants?  Brklyn Brwlers, Gowanus Growlers, Pre Season Champs, and Kathleen Turner Overdrive.  The trophy?  a tallboy of PBR.  

Turducken Me

Some quick takes on each round of Turducken's legendary draft last night.

Round 3: 6RBs, 4WRs, 2QBs
Best pick: Pierre Thomas. Why? GaGa has CJ2K and Peyton Manning to go with him-that could be the best backfield all year.
Worst pick: Steve Smith. Doesn't help that Hakeem Nicks will be Eli's top target.
Big or Bust: Ryan Mathews. You never know with Rookies.

Round 4: 5RBs, 3WRs, 2QBs, 2TEs
Shocked with Eli going this high. I know there weren't a lot of QBs on the board, but Eli is hardly worth a 4th round pick. Considering the Vikings depleted receiving corps Favre is a stretch here as well. A few early TEs off the board, but when there names are Gates and Clark that's not a shock.
Best pick: Antonio Gates. I'm not a fan of TE's going this high, but considering SD doesn't have any proven WRs, Rivers will be relying heavily on Gates.
Worst pick: Eli Manning. He's good, but this is too high with so much talent on the board.
Big or Bust: Jamaal Charles and Matt Forte.

Round 5: 5RBs, 4WRs,1QB, 2TEs
Running backs are still the popular picks as teams are starting to get their core players together.
Best pick: Jermichael Finley
Worst pick: Joe Flacco (see note on Eli).
Big or Bust: Arian Foster. Can he live up to the hype?

Round 6: 4RBs, 5WRs, 3 TEs
Interesting that Felix Jones and Marion Barber both went n the 6th round. Someone will end up with the short end of the stick on this one.
Best pick: Michael Crabtree. He could be a steal this late.
Worst pick: Clinton Portis. He's got a lot of miles and is injury prone.
Big or Bust: Felix Jones. Can he finally establish himself at the Cowboys #1?

Round 7: 3 RBs, 5WRs, 2 TEs
Probably one of the most interesting rounds when you look at the upside/downside of each pick. Most teams are adding to their bench with this pick you can tell they're willing to be a bit more risky.
Best pick: Pierre Garcon. I think he'll push Reggie Wayne as Peyton's most prolific WR.
Worst pick: Zach Miller. You have Celek, Winslow, Shiancoe available and it's Miller time?
Big or Bust: C.J. Spiller. A rookie on a talent-less team. This might be a very large burden to carry.

Round 8: 3RBs, 4WRs, 1 TE, 2QBs, 2K
2 kickers in the 8th round? Really? Where is Seth Meyers when I need him.
Best pick: anyone not picking a kicker this high
Worst pick: TIE Kaeding and Gostkowski
Big or Bust: Ahmad Bradshaw. Can he get the touches to be legit starter?

Round 9: 3RBs, 3WRs, 1QB, 1K, 4Ds
More defenses selected than any other position!?!?!
Best pick: Matt Ryan. Good value this late in the draft.
Worst pick: Ryan Longwell. Again, a Kicker?
Big or Bust: LT and Thomas Jones: both veteran backups with fresh legs ahead of them-could be a waste of space on the roster.

Round 10: 3RBs, 4WRs, 2QBs, 3Ds
Best pick: Kevin Kolb
Worst pick: Darren Sproles
Big or Bust: Steve Slaton. Can he become relevant again in Houston?

Round 11: 2RBs, 3WRs, 1QB, 2TE, 3Ks, 1D
Best pick: Owen Daniels. Good value on a pass friendly team.
Worst pick: Leon Washington. Not enough PT for Leon this year.
Big or Bust: Mike Williams. Reunited with Pete Carroll and it feels so good?

Round 12: 4RBs, 5WRs, 1QB, 1TE, 1K
Best pick: Vincent Jackson. Great value. He'll play this year and pay off bigtime
Worst pick: None.
Big or Bust: None. A pretty safe round through and through.

Round 13: 4WR,1QB, 3TE, 1K, 3D
Best pick: Devery Henderson. The way Brees spreads the ball he could easily become a flex/3WR option
Worst pick: None
Big or Bust: Golden Tate

Round 14: 3RBs, 5WRs, 2QBs, 1TE, 1D
Best pick: Vince Young. He could actually become a legit fantasy QB this year. It's the 14th round. No harm, no foul.
Worst pick:none
Big or Bust: Dexter McCluster

Round 15: 1RB, 6WR, 1QB, 1TE, 2K, 1D
Best pick: Sidney Rice. Yes, he's out atleast 6 weeks, but that could mean 10 weeks with a top-10 WR. Just in time for playoffs.
Worst pick: none
Big or Bust: Mark Sanchez. Let's see if Sanchez has a sophmore slump.

Round 16: 2RB, 4WR, 1QB, 1TE, 3K, 1D
Best pick: anyone who picked a Kicker in the 16th round
Worst pick: anyone who didn't pick a kicker in the 16th round
Big or Bust: Heyward-Bey. Let's see if he can live up to his top draft status this year with a new QB.

The Greatest Season of All...

Yes, fantasy football is finally here! With 99% of all the drafts completed before tonight's kickoff everyone for one day can feel like an undefeated champion. Tonight's game is a rematch of last year's great NFC Championship with the dramatic OT victory that propelled the Saints to the Super Bowl and sent Favre fans ironically happy knowing that he would never retire with an interception as his last pass. Fast forward through all the drama of the offseason and we are here-finally.

Tonight's prediction. Minnesota will look to control the ball on the ground until Favre finds his new favorite target. Fantasy owners of all-day AP will benefit the most from Sidney Rice's 6 week absence. I expect Percy Harvin and Shiancoe to be Favre's favorite targets.

New Orleans will look to use its' many offensive weapons and spread the ball. Only Peyton Manning does a better job than Brees in using every weapon on the offensive arsenal.

Biggest fantasy winner's tonight: Brees, Colston, Peterson, and Harvin.
Losers: MIN DEF, Favre, and Bush.

Enjoy the fireworks.

Fantasy Favorites

A few musings and predictions for your upcoming fantasy drafts...

Aaron Rogers is the only QB that is worth drafting in the first round (think after pick 9).

Larry Fitzgerald is the best receiver in the league who will never get the ball as long as Matt Leinart is QB. Careful here with picking him.

LT and Shonn Greene will produce like Stewart and Williams with Carolina. Saying it now-if LT stays healthy he gets 1000 yards this season. No particular reason, call it a hunch...

Bye week stacking-an interesting idea. Basically you draft a lot of guys who all have bye weeks the same week and essentially forfeit that one game, but then have a stacked line up the rest of the year. Never tried it, but this year I might.

Handcuffing-why on earth would you draft a running back who you thought was going to get injured just so you can waste a pick later in the draft on his back up. I have never understood this philosophy. Yes, everyone will say what about Michael Turner last year with Jason Snelling. My response: unless you're a mind reader why do you want to waste even a late round pick on a bench player. Waiver wires exist for a reason.

Ray Rice. Better year than Chris Johnson.

Some good rookies and 2nd year studs will be on a lot of teams.

Defense/kicker = your last 2 picks.

Jermichael Finley leads all TEs this year.

Be patient and value oriented. Just because everyone in your draft gets TE happy in the 4th round doesn't mean you should too or QB happy in the second round. Patience can pay off big time.

Questions, comments, complaints? hit me up.

Fantasy Preview: San Diego Chargers

San Diego Chargers
2008: 8-8
2009: 13-3
2010: 13-3

Schedule
Week 1: at Kansas City
Week 2: Jacksonville
Week 3: at Seattle
Week 4: Arizona
Week 5: at Oakland
Week 6: at St. Louis
Week 7: New England
Week 8: Tennessee
Week 9: at Houston
Week 10: bye
Week 11: Denver
Week 12: at Indianapolis
Week 13: Oakland
Week 14: Kansas City
Week 15: San Francisco
Week 16: at Cincinnati
Week 17: at Denver

San Diego could start the season at 9-0 with New England as their first real test in week 7, but you have to like their chances at home against a team traveling across country. There could be a surprise in week one as KC is always a tough place to play, but shouldn’t be a match for a veteran led team in the Chargers. They’re only real tests in the second half of the season are a road games against Indy and Cincinnati that will have a playoff feel to them.

Quarterback: Philip Rivers has consistently been a top 5 fantasy QB. Don’t worry about Vincent Jackson holding out or the loss of LT. Rivers will continue to produce and is worth a late 2nd round pick in most fantasy drafts.

Running backs: Ryan Matthews is a stud rookie out of Fresno State. The Chargers were so high on this guy they traded up to get him and didn’t think twice about losing LT. With the weak schedule he’ll get plenty of action and will put up some solid numbers. He’s should be available in most drafts until the middle rounds and someone might even pull the trigger on this kid early. I think if you pick him up in the 8th-10th round you’ll have yourself quite a steal. If you’re keen on him then I’d follow him in the preseason, but also in mock drafts to see where he’s going. From there you’ll have a pretty good idea if you can wait or if you need to pick him up a round or two earlier.

Darren Sproles should be watched closely. If Matthews signs early and establishes himself as the starter then Sproles won't get enough touches to warrant a draft pick as his running production will go down this season. If Sproles looks to be the starter, then he's worth a spot on your roster, but he shouldn't be your #1 or #2 RB.

Wide Receivers: Vincent Jackson will be a #1 in pretty much every league. His contract will get worked out and he’ll have plenty of time to get ready for week 1.

Malcom Floyd will be a solid #3 WR or add good depth to your bench. He might not be drafted in some leagues, but by round 12 or 13 he’s a solid value pick.

Tight End: Antonio Gates is one of the few TE’s that is a star in the NFL, but that doesn’t mean you should draft him in the 3rd or even 4th round. If someone picks a TE in the 4th round (it happens) other owners get nervous and pull the trigger and by the 5th round you have 5 or 6 TEs picked even though you have a ton of holes on your roster and a ton of talent on the board. As much as I like Gates, he’s not someone I pick in round 4 or 5. Last year he was the 3rd best TE behind Clark and Davis. To put his point production into perspective, the 49ers Defense scored more points than Gates and no one was picking them in the 4th round. This is about value. He’s a great TE and a starter on every team, but just be patient and don’t pull the trigger too quickly on a guy that’s real value is in the 7th or 8th round.

Defense: The chargers D was pretty average last year. Not great, not horrible. Three of their first 4 picks in the draft this year were on the defensive side so you know they want to improve. Merriman hasn’t been the same since he’s had to play juice free and a suspect secondary leaves them open to the big play. They wouldn’t be my top choice, but are good enough to make them your starting D because they’ll have plenty of help with a weak opening schedule.

Kicker: Nate Kaeding led all kickers last year in fantasy points. If you have the first pick in the 16th round-he’s your man.

Fantasy Preview: Oakland Raiders

Oakland Raiders
2008: 5-11
2009: 5-11
2010 Prediction: 6-10

Schedule
Week 1: at Tennessee
Week 2: St. Louis
Week 3: at Arizona
Week 4: Houston
Week 5: San Diego
Week 6: at San Francisco
Week 7: at Denver
Week 8: Seattle
Week 9: Kansas City
Week 10: bye
Week 11: at Pittsburgh
Week 12: Miami
Week 13: at San Diego
Week 14: at Jacksonville
Week 15: Denver
Week 16: Indianapolis
Week 17: at Kansas City

Oakland will improve this year, but not by much. They start off the season with a tough road match up against the Titans, but then have 3 winnable games before hosting a tough division rival in San Diego. After the bye week they’ll play the Steelers on the road who will be in playoff form, but are lucky to play Indy in week 16 while the Colts tend to be more concerned with resting players than getting a W. Jason Campbell will add stability, but if he goes down any chance at being a .500 team goes down with him.

Quarterbacks: Unless you’re in a 14/16 team league no point in drafting Campbell. Is he an improvement? Yes. Is he a starter? No.

Running backs: Darren McFadden will split carries with Michael Bush. I like McFadden as a wire guy only. He’s an effective receiver out of the backfield, but has yet to be a steady or productive every down back.

Michael Bush: Keep an eye on Bush. Most beat reporters in the Bay area have him picking up the load of the carries now that Justin Fargas has left. He’s averaged 4.8 ypc last season and had a few 100-yard games.

Wide Receivers: Louis Murphy averaged 15.3ypr last year. The only problem is that he only caught 34 balls. Look for him to get between 55-65 receptions this year with the same average making him a bye week guy, but worth a spot on somebody’s roster.

Chaz Schilens is another safe pick for the later rounds. He won’t be a top WR, but could be a worthy sub for when you need him.

Heyward-Bey: I’m not sold on him and wouldn’t draft him. He’s not a good route runner or very physical.

Tight End
Zach Miller led the team in receptions last year and is always a solid starter. He won’t compete with Antonio Gates or even a Brent Celek, but if you don’t want to draft a TE high in the draft, he’ll be there late in the draft to grab. His numbers will only go up this year with a competent QB.

Defense: The Raiders were 26th in the league last year in overall D. 7th in passing D, but 29th against the run. They used their first 2 picks in the draft to help stop the run with Rolando McClain and big bodied Lamarr Houston. Will it make a difference? Not enough to draft this D.

Kicker: Sebastian Janikowski made 6 out of 8 FGs from over 50-yards last year. Only one other kicker in the league had more attempts from that distance (Josh Scobee), but nowhere near his accuracy. With a better team he’ll have more attempts and PATs. From 20-29 yards: 100%, 30-39: 100%, 40-49: 90% (he missed once) and hit 75% from over 50. He’s a starter and should be your pick in the 16th round!

Fantasy Preview: Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City Chiefs
2008 record: 2-14
2009 record: 4-12
2010 prediction: 7-9

Schedule
Week 1: San Diego
Week 2: at Cleveland
Week 3: San Francisco
Week 4: BYE
Week 5: at Indianapolis
Week 6: at Houston
Week 7: Jacksonville
Week 8: Buffalo
Week 9: at Oakland
Week 10: at Denver
Week 11: Arizona
Week 12: at Seattle
Week 13: Denver
Week 14: at San Diego
Week 15: at St. Louis
Week 16: Tennessee
Week 17: Oakland

The Chiefs will be a much more competitive team this year and have a friendly schedule to pick up some wins against lesser opponents. They are a bit unlucky to have such an early bye week. Todd Haley’s biggest additions this year might be on the sideline with Charlie Weis returning to the NFL as the offensive coordinator and Romeo Crennel his defensive counterpart. It's still an uphill battle, but they'll make some progress this year.

QBs:
Matt Cassel struggled in his first year and never looked comfortable. A weak offensive line, a disgruntled Larry Johnson, and a new system were all contributing factors, but things will improve this year-not enough that you want him as your fantasy starter, but in a deep league he could be your bye week QB.

Running Back:
Jamal Charles rushed for 968 yards in the last 8 games to finish the season with a bang. Everyone likes to jump on the bandwagon and assume that if you double those numbers then that’s what he’d put up for a season. Not exactly. Charles is dynamic, but he’s not your #1 RB. He’s going to put up some solid numbers, quite possibly spectacular-after all he did average a mind boggling 5.9ypc, but there are better backs that you know can take the grind of a 16 game season. He’s your #2 or flex style pick, but he’ll be off the board by the 3rd round because someone will have him as this year's Chris Johnson.

Thomas Jones is another reason to give fantasy owners some concern about Charles being your #1RB back because Jones might be entering his 11th season, but he hasn’t shown any sign of slowing down. Last year with the Jets (and a great O-line) he ran for 1400 yards and 14 TDs. His production this year will be about half of that, but look for him to get goal line carries or those tough inside yards.

Dexter McCluster is their 2nd round pick who will play all over the field. They list him as a RB, but he’ll get more touches coming out of the backfield as a receiver or in a wildcat formation. Think Percy Harvin type athlete. McCluster is worth a late round pick up. Don’t waste anything before the 12th round on him unless he has a spectacular preseason, but he’s worth a spot on your roster.

Wide Receiver:
Dwayne Bowe is the best of the bunch, but he’s a headache. He’s a #2 or #3 WR on your team. Ideally, he’s the guy you bring in during bye weeks, but with a questionable QB and offense no telling about his production.

Tight End:
Leonard Pope will go into the season as the started, but they drafted Tony Moeaki in the third round this year to compete with him. Neither player warrants a spot on your roster.

Defense: They’ll be better than last year, but last year they were 30th in the league. This year maybe 25th. Drafting Eric Berry will improve the secondary, but he won’t help much with the front 7 that is still suspect.

Kicker: Ryan Succop-finally a player worth drafting-make him your Mr. Irrelevant and you’ll be happy. Missed 4 FGs last year and 3 of them were over 50yards. Now if only Cassel can get them within range.

Tomorrow: Oakland Raiders

Fantasy Preview: Denver Broncos

Team by Team Fantasy Analysis:
So everyday for the next month and 2 days I’ll profile each NFL team. We're going to start in the AFC West and eventually make our way east so without further adieu...

Update: Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter have both gone down with injuries. Moreno is out 3-4 weeks with a hamstring and Buckhalter hurt his back. Read more here.

First up: DENVER BRONCOS
2008 record: 8-8
2009 record: 8-8
2010 prediction: 8-8

Schedule
Week 1: at Jacksonville
Week 2: Seattle
Week 3: Indianapolis
Week 4: at Tennessee
Week 5: at Baltimore
Week 6: New York Jets
Week 7: Oakland
Week 8: at San Francisco
Week 9: BYE
Week 10: Kansas City
Week 11: at San Diego
Week 12: St. Louis
Week 13: at Kansas City
Week 14: at Arizona
Week 15: at Oakland
Week 16: Houston
Week 17: San Diego

Denver has a tough first 6 weeks to open the season. They could easily be 1-5 at worst, 3-3 at best. I’m going for a middle of the road and putting them at 2-4 with wins against Seattle and the Jets. The good news is that after week 6, they get some relief playing the bay area teams-although, Oakland and San Francisco will be better teams this year-especially Oakland-these are games that are must wins and Denver will squeak by w/a pair of W’s and then face KC at home after the BYE week, which should give them the edge against a divisional rival. Playing St. Louis and Houston at home in late December was a gift from the scheduling gods that killed them in September and October. But after all is said and all of Tebow’s scriptures for his rookie season are analyzed the Broncos will still be a bubble team of mediocrity at 8-8.

Quarterbacks: Simply put No. Do not enter, Do not pass go-go straight to fantasy jail if you pick up one of them up. Danger. Think radiation signs.

Kyle Orton will be the starter in September and it will be his unfortunate luck that the schedule could not be worse facing Baltimore, NY Jets, Tennessee and Indy. If only he’d be starting in December could he get some W’s. At best, in a 14-16 team fantasy league he is a back up, but definitely not worth picking up in the draft. Wire guy only.

Brady Quinn: Before McDaniels goes to Timmy as the starter, he’ll give Brady a shot. Since Quinn’s been in the league he’s never been able to play a snap without looking over his shoulder. This makes him well suited for playing for the Broncos, but unfortunately for Broncos fans-he’s usually too busy looking over his shoulder (or maybe in the mirror) to be an effective fantasy pick up.

Tim Tebow: Josh McDaniels will go out of his way to justify his idiotic decision to waste a first round pick on Tebow so with that in mind…he’ll get some playing time early in the season. They’ll design some short yardage plays to keep the drive alive, a wildcat-esque set and goal line settings to work Timmy in the game. Think: part decoy, part demigod. He won’t be in enough to warrant a draft pick, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he reaps the benefit of the schedule gods and finishes the season taking his team to another early (but by J. McDaniels standards) promising exit.


Running Backs: All you need to know is Knowshon Moreno (thank you cheese). Last year Moreno led rookies with rushing yards and TDs. He only averaged 3.8ypc, but he’ll be a bigger part of the offense this year and should break 1000 yards and 10 TDs. He’s good enough to start in most fantasy leagues.

Others:
Correll Buckhalter: He’ll be Moreno’s back up, but not worth handcuffing him. He’s in his 10th year in the league and will be used sparingly.

J.J. Arrington: Drafted by the Cardinals in 2005, Arrington has struggled to get his NFL career off the ground. He signed last year with Denver and blew out his knee. He’ll make the team, but has little fantasy value…ok, zero fantasy value.

Wide Receivers: Losing Brandon Marshall will hurt, not only the QBs, but also a guy like Eddie Royal who really benefitted from all the double coverage. But, there are a few guys, Royal included, who could be worth spots on your roster.

Eddie Royal: The 3rd year player will look to step up and go from sidekick to star. He’ll look to return to 2008 form when he had 91 receptions and almost 1000 yards. Last year he was a fantasy bust-only 37 receptions, 345 yards, and a bagel for TDs. A few reasons for the lower numbers last year: no Brandon Marshall for part of the season and no Jay Cutler, no Mike Shanahan. New QB, new coach, all led to a down year. Royal is worth a late round pick. He can provide some depth on your roster and you could walk away with a steal.

Brandon Stokley: The veteran receiver had his best years playing for another horse themed team. He’s not worth a spot on the roster.

Jabbar Gaffney: Gaffney was the best WR last year for Denver. He teamed up with Orton for 54 receptions and over 700 yards. Hardly the type of numbers that make you want to draft someone, but he’s worth a look on the wire if you need help in certain weeks

Demaryius Thomas: Rookie, Georgia Tech. I like Thomas. He was an acrobatic, big play receiver in college and could be the real deal. He’s someone to follow during the preseason as he could easily be a starter and impact player in Week 1.

Eric Decker: Rookie, Minnesota Another promising rookie to keep your eye on this season. He has great hands and had a reputation for never missing a targeted throw. A slot receiver with size?

Tight Ends: Daniel Graham-the veteran or Richard Quinn-the 2nd round pick last year. Go with Graham as a backup in 14-16 team leagues. If you’re playing a 10 or 12 team league you can do much better.

Defense: I never put too much weight on drafting Defenses or Kickers early and there is nothing about this team that says pick before the 16th round, but the Broncos traditionally have one of the better Defenses in the league. This year is no different. They’ll be a starting D in most leagues.

Kicker: Matt Praeter-see note on when to draft, but Praeter is worth drafting with your last (or if you jump the gun, 2nd to last pick). It’s painful to lose a game because you’re K shanks one wide right, but Praeter plays in Denver (thin air alert) with an offense that sputters inside the red zone so he gets lots of opportunities to put up points.

2nd Year Studs, Rookies and Sleepers

1. Shonn Greene: RB, NY Jets
Great offensive line and surrounded by a lot of offensive talent means he’ll get plenty of yards and scores.

2. Hakeem Nicks: WR, NY Giants
His hands, routes, and size make him a QBs dream

3. Mike Wallace: WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
The only reason he’s 3 on this list is QB situation is a bit shaky until Ben comes back. Otherwise he’s 1 on this list.

4. Percy Harvin: WR, Minnesota Vikings
Harvin is an all around athlete making him dangerous as a receiver, returner, and even in wildcat situations.

5. (tie)Mark Sanchez QB, NY Jets/Matthew Stafford, QB Detroit Lions
Both rookies showed why they were top picks. Sanchez is lucky to have a ton of talent around him and as long as he’s a game manager he’ll have the opportunity to put up great numbers with one of the best O-lines and great position players in Cotchery, Holmes, Edwards, Greene, Tomlinson and Keller.

Stafford doesn’t have the talent surrounding him that Sanchez does, but Detroit had a good offseason and draft adding pieces around him. He showed a lot of composure through a bumpy rookie season, but he has Calvin Johnson, Nate Burleson, a solid TE in Tony Scheffler and Jahvid Best should be an upgrade at RB.

Rookies/Sleepers to watch
These are some rookies to keep your eye on in the draft. They’re worth picking up in mid to late rounds or off the wire, but they should be impact players this year.

1. Dexter McCluster Athlete, Kansas City Chiefs
It’s hard to know where they’ll play McCluster. He’s lightening quick, strong, and can play running back, wide receiver, QB in wildcat formations, and is a dangerous return man. With Todd Haley’s creativity he can do a lot with someone with McCluster’s skills.

2. Ryan Matthews: RB, San Diego Chargers
Matthews will be the rookie of the year. Chargers moved up in the draft to get him and many experts had him as the top rated RB in the draft. He’s a complete back and will play on the best team in a weak AFC West.

3. Dez Bryant: WR, Dallas Cowboys
Move over Roy Williams-you’re about to ride the pine. Bryant has legit size, good speed, and will tandem with Miles Austin to make Dallas the NFC East’s best offensive team.

Some sleepers...

1. Early Doucet: WR, Arizona Cardinals
Doucet will take over for Boldin in Arizona’s offense. With Larry Fitzgerald getting smothered, look for Doucet to get open and have a breakout year.

2. Jamal Charles: RB, Kansas City Chiefs
He’s a very loud sleeper the way he finished off his season, but I can see some people taking Justin Forsett or Reggie Bush ahead of him, which would be a mistake.

3. Louis Murphy: WR, Oakland Raiders
With a competent QB behind center look for Murphy to have a breakout year for the Raiders.

NFC Quick Hits

NFC North

Chicago Bears: The Jay Cutler experiment last year was a failure, but not all his fault-a young wide receiving corps, bad offensive line, and an ineffective running game all contributed to the bears struggles. So what’s the forecast this year: Aromashodu at WR should be the standout of WR. Hester is best in a hybrid role, but not a #1 or 2 fantasy receiver. Forte has pressure on him after the Bears signing Taylor, but if he can get back to his rookie form he’ll be a top 10 back. Cutler is a #2 fantasy QB for now.

Detroit Lions: Calvin Johnson is the best receiver on one of the worst teams and has done more with less than any player in the league. Stafford’s improved play will mean bigger stats for Johnson. The Lions gave Stafford some good weapons this year with Scheffler at TE and rookie Jahvid Best. Look for Best to take over for the oft-injured Kevin Smith.

Green Bay Packers: Aaron Rogers is a top 2 fantasy QB. Brees may put up bigger numbers, but Rogers ability to get rushing TDs is often overlooked and a way to pick up extra points. Look for Finley to arrive as a top TE. Jennings and Drivers are solid picks, but both have had some injuries, but they’re both starters. Ryan Grant is a top RB and should get the bulk of the carries this year.

Minnesota Vikings: A lot of their offensive production depends on Brett Favre. If he comes back he’ll make a lot of fantasy owners happy-but even happier will be Percy Harvin and Sidney Rice- they could put up some monsterous numbers. Peterson is still a threat at RB. He’s got a ton of issues with fumbles, which makes him a goal line liability and is why the Vikings drafted Toby Gerhardt. Look for Gerhardt to be a guy who averages 5 yards a game with 2 TD’s. Shiancoe is a top TE. This team is loaded with talent…pending the return of their fickle and fearless leader.


NFC South

Atlanta Falcons: Roddy White, Matt Ryan, and Michael Turner. I think Ryan will have a good season this year and could be a #1 in some leagues, definitely a #2 in every league. Roddy White will continue to be his go-to receiver, but expect a lot of double-coverage. Tony Gonzalez continues to be productive defying his age. Turner proved he was the real deal last year before getting injured. If Turner’s your guy make sure you handcuff him as durability is still suspect.

Carolina Panthers: Looks like this is shaping up to be a tough year for Carolina. Steve Smith’s broken leg could keep him out of training camp and slow the veteran receiver down. I think this is the year that you pass on Smith until the 3rd or 4th round. Matt Moore will battle rookie Jimmy Clausen for the starting position at QB- look for Moore to be the starter in September, which bodes well for DeAngelo Williams and Jonathon Stewart. Both get yards and scores and are safe picks for your 1 or 2 RB.

New Orleans Saints: A Drew Brees led team won’t have much of a let down after winning the Super Bowl. They’ll come back hungry and ready to defend the title, which is great news for fantasy owners. Brees is one of the few QBs who is worthy a first round pick. He spreads the ball and is surrounded with weapons at every position. Colston, Meachum, and Henderson will all get plenty of targets. Colston is still a #1 with Meachum and Henderson better situated to be your 2/3/flex options. Pierre Thomas will get the bulk of carries and is a fantasy starter. Only draft Bush if he’s sitting there in the 6th round or later. He’s too inconsistent and there are too many other options for him to be a starter on your team.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The only player that is a fantasy starter on this team is Kellen Winslow. Josh Freeman will remain to be up and down in his first full year as a starter. Cadillac Williams’ production is good, but not great and will split carries with Derrick Ward making them guys for the bye weeks.


NFC East

Dallas Cowboys: Cowboys offensively should be one of the more explosive and productive teams this year. Miles Austin will be a top receiver and Dez Bryant is a worthy pick up in the later rounds-kid can play. RBs are by committee. Both Felix Jones and Marion Barber will split carries. They’re both going to be productive, but neither are #1. Jason Witten is still a favorite target of Tony Romo and both are safe starters.

New York Giants: With a year playing together look for the young receiving corps to be much improved which makes Eli a legit starter in bigger leagues and definitely a worthy back up. Hakeem Nicks and Manningham will get plenty of targets. Manningham needs to have less drops. Nicks will have a breakout season and is a worthy #2. Boss is a backup TE in fantasy. Jacobs and Bradshaw will be another RB by committee with Jacobs getting the brunt of the carries. He’s a starter in most leagues and Bradshaw is worth a late round pick.

Philadelphia Eagles: They have some explosive position players. LeSean McCoy, DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, and Brent Celek should all be starters. The obvious question is if Kolb can get them the ball. My gut says that Andy Reid wouldn’t let McNabb go unless this Kolb was ready. Kolb just needs to be a game manager and get the ball into anyone of his play makers hands and they’ll make him look like a top fantasy QB.

Washington Redskins: An upgrade and motivated QB with McNabb will help this first year QB/Coached team. He’s not a starter in a 10 team league, but can be in 12/14 team leagues. He doesn’t have quite as many weapons as he did in Philly, but he’s a savvy veteran with a great offensive coach. Portis isn’t what he used to be, but worth a spot on your bench. Moss is a flex guy. Cooley is the only solid fantasy starter on this roster.

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals: Larry Fitzgerald will struggle this year. Losing Warner and Boldin will put a tremendous amount of pressure on him. He’s still great and can go up and get the ball better than anyone in the league, but don’t expect the massive numbers he’s put up in the past. If the offense doesn’t bomb-Doucet is a safe/sleeper pick as he’ll be the biggest beneficiary of Larry Fitz getting double teamed. Anderson and Leinhart aren’t worth spots on your roster. Beanie Wells showed some glimpses of being a starter and is worth a mid-round pickup.

San Francisco 49ers: Gore is another starting RB worth handcuffing. He takes a lot of abuse and is suspect to hold up 16 games. Crabtree should produce this year now that he’ll play a full season. Vernon Davis should still be a considered a top TE despite issues under center. QB remains to be an issue and Alex Smith is an iffy backup.

Seattle Seahawks: New coach, new QB? Hasselbeck might not make it through September as the starter and there isn’t a lot of depth behind him. Forsett should get a lot of carries and will be a nice surprise to someone who picks him up. Look for Rookie Golden Tate to make some headlines this year on a talent deprived team.

St. Louis Rams: Sam Bradford is good. Unfortunately, the Rams offensive line is not. He’ll suffer through a tough rookie year as he doesn’t have a lot of weapons around him. This is the year Steven Jackson becomes human and starts that natural RB decline. And to make matters worse, Jackson and Bradford won’t get any help from their WR. Name one? Yea, I couldn’t either.